【2009经济学人杂志双语阅读】Towers of debt 债“塔”高筑

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The collapse in commercial property

商用物业价格暴跌

Towers of debt 债“塔”高筑

Jul 30th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Concerns are switching from the residential to the commercial sector

市场焦虑从住宅物业向商用物业转移



FROM a distance Potsdamer Platz looks a bit like its old self. Once the central hub of Berlin, before it was turned into a rubble-strewn no-man’s-land divided by the Wall, it is now surrounded by shiny new towers. Get a little closer, however, and it becomes clear that many buildings are just façades painted onto giant hoardings that rise ten stories high between actual office blocks.

远观波茨坦广场，似乎其依然保持旧时姿态。作为昔日柏林的中心枢纽（其后沦为被柏林墙一分为二、碎石散落的死亡地带），波茨坦广场四周正环绕着许多金光闪闪地大楼。然而近看才发现，许多的大楼不过是画在立于各商业办公大楼间高达十多层楼的巨型围板上的画作罢了。

This subterfuge makes for a far more pleasant view than that provided by vacant lots. It also points to an unusual degree of restraint among developers in Europe’s second-largest property market (by transactions). The commercial-property market in most other parts of the developed world is in deep trouble.

虽然这花招使得空荡荡的土地看起来让人赏心悦目多了。但它同时也暗示着欧洲开发商们对第二大房地产交易市场正“按兵不动”着。商用物业市场在发达国家其他地区正深陷困境。

Unlike other property busts, this downturn has not been driven by speculative overbuilding but by investors’ overenthusiasm. Commercial property was a popular asset class for much of this decade. Institutional investors who lost a lot of money when the dotcom bubble burst were persuaded that switching from the stockmarket into property would diversify their portfolios and reduce their risk. Cheap finance was plentiful. Investors could indulge in a version of the “carry trade”—borrowing at a low interest rate to buy buildings and counting on the rental yield and capital growth to more than cover their financing costs.

与其他房地产商破产情况不同，这一低迷的市场情况并非由投机过热所造成的，而是因为投资者反应冷淡。对于这大半个十年来说，商用物业无疑是一热门的资产类 别。当各机构投资者因房产泡沫沫破灭而失去大量资金时，许多人都劝说他们将投资从股票市场转向房地产业，这样可以使其投资结构多样化而减少风险。廉价融资 的情况随处可见。投资者可投身于其中一种“套利交易”——投资者通过借贷以低利率购买房屋，并依靠租金收益及资金增长直至超过其融资成本。

That strategy looked smart when rents and capital values were rising and vacancy rates were low. But as cheap financing has dried up and economies have tumbled into recession, investors have become badly exposed. According to Marcus & Millichap, an estate agent, the office-vacancy rate in Manhattan climbed by more than three percentage points in the first half of the year, to 11.2%. As tenants have disappeared, rents have fallen too—by 16% over the past year, Marcus & Millichap reckons.

在租金和资金价值上扬及房屋空置率低时，这一办法看上去确实不失为一智计。但是，随着廉价融资的枯竭以及经济陷入衰退期，投资者的错误严重暴露出来。地产 代理公司Marcus & Millichap调查指出，今年第一季度曼哈顿办公室空置率达11.2%，上升百分之三点多。Marcus & Millichap预测，随着住户的减少，租金也已降低至去年同期的16%。

Property prices have also been badly hit. Moody’s, a rating agency, estimates that American commercial-property prices dropped by 7.6% in May alone, leaving them almost 35% below their peak in October 2007. Prices would have gone down even further had not transactions dried to a trickle (see chart). Owners are loth to sell into a falling market, although some distressed sales are occurring.

物业价格也受到严重影响。穆迪氏投资服务公司最新报告显示, 美国商业地产价格5月下跌7．6％，比2007年10月最高点下降35％，价格可能正在触底（见表格）。尽管发展商们不愿意在价格下跌的情况下低价出售，但仍有一些不得不痛心卖出物业。



All this sounds like a replay of the downturn in the residential-property market, where easy borrowing terms allowed homebuyers to push prices to extreme levels. To add to the sense of déjà vu, property loans have also been bundled into complex financial instruments, known as commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBSs). The riskiest of these, mainly those issued between 2005 and 2007, are now running into trouble.

所有这些似乎都像是住宅物业市场低迷情况的再现，宽松的借贷条件使得购房者们将价格推向极端。为了营造似曾相识的感觉，许许多多的贷款还被捆绑在一起催生 出复杂难以操作的证券，即按揭贷款支持的商业证券（CMBSs）。其中最高风险性的要数于2005至2007年间发行的多数证券，而这些现在正处于重重困 境中的各大证券。

Realpoint, a credit-rating agency, says that nearly $29 billion of CMBSs, around 3.5% of the total, have become delinquent (ie, borrowers have not kept up interest payments) in the past 12 months. It thinks the delinquency rate could reach 6% by the end of the year. Richard Parkus of Deutsche Bank reckons the default rate could eventually reach 12%. Together with bad construction loans, that could push the losses of American banks on commercial property to $200 billion-230 billion. Many small banks will go under as a result.

信贷评级机构Realpoint表示，在过去的12个月里已有近290亿美元，约占整体的3.5%的商业抵押担保证券贷款成为拖欠账款（借款人没有按时交 纳利息）。该机构认为到今年年底，拖欠率有可能达到6%。德意志银行的理查德.帕克斯表示商业抵押担保证券违约率最终将达到12%。商业抵押担保贷款违约 率升高连同不良建筑业贷款一起，可能将造成美国银行在商业物业上损失两千到两千三百亿美元。而许多小银行将因此破产。

European banks are exposed to property, too. The good news is that the two biggest euro-zone economies, France and Germany, have seen only modest declines in rents and prices. But one of Italy’s biggest property companies, Risanamento, is fighting to stave off its creditors. And pain is being felt all around the periphery of the euro area. In Spain (see article) and Ireland vacancies are surging, property prices are plummeting and cranes are standing idle.

同时，欧洲各银行也面临房产问题。值得庆幸的是世界上最大的两个欧元经济区欧洲和德国，目前仅看到租金和售价的小幅走低。不过，意大利最大的地产公司之一 的Risanamento正想尽办法逃避其债主们。并且欧元区的外围地区也已经开始对这一问题感到头疼了。在西班牙和爱尔兰，房屋空置量激增、房地产价格 暴跌而工地上的起重机也不过在那“袖手旁观”。

Prices are plunging across central and eastern Europe, too, although the volume of transactions remains slim. Yields in many of these markets were driven down by hopes that they would, in time, converge with those in mature European markets. Vacancy rates in cities such as Budapest have surged to about 15% while those in Prague have almost doubled (to roughly 10%) over the past year. Some of the biggest falls in rents are taking place in Russia. Rents in Moscow have fallen by 63% in the 12 months to the end of June although they are still the third-highest in Europe (after the West End in London, and Paris). With almost one-fifth of office space empty, further falls in rents and prices seem likely.

尽管房产价格下挫也遍布整个欧洲的中部和东部，但交易量仍然微乎其微。这一市场交易量下跌是因为该地区投资者们希望他们假以时日能与欧洲成熟市场保持一 致。在过去的一年里，布达佩斯等城市的房屋空置率已飙升至15%，而布拉格的空置率已经翻了一番（大约10%）。租金下降率最大的城市在俄罗斯。欧洲排名 第三高的莫斯科（位列伦敦西区和巴黎之后）的房屋租金在到6月为止的12个月里下滑了63%。随着近五分之一的办公物业空闲，房屋租金及售价有可能进一步 走低。

Asia has not been spared either. The worst-affected property markets in the region have been financial centres such as Singapore and Hong Kong. Shrivelling bank balance-sheets have meant shrinking demand for office space, as armies of bankers have lost their jobs. Singapore’s swankiest business district led the retreat in office rents across the region, shedding more than half between June 2008 and June 2009, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a consultancy. Hong Kong was not far behind with a 43% drop in the same period. Mumbai (down by 40%) and Shanghai (32%) were the next hardest hit.

亚洲也没有逃脱房产市场下滑这一魔掌。像新加坡、香港这样的金融中心为该地区受波及最严重的物业市场。随着银行大军的失业，银行存款余额萎缩意味着办公空 间需求量减少。高纬物业顾问有限公司表示，新加坡优质办公室区带头在亚洲降低办公司租金，在2008年6月到2009年6月间暴跌近一半以上。同期，香港 以43%的下跌率紧随其后。孟买（40%）及上海（32%）位居其后。

There are some signs that the speed of the downward adjustment is slowing. In Hong Kong, office rents in the prime central district declined by 20.1% in the first quarter. The fall was much more moderate, but still 10.4%, in the second. Looking ahead, Singapore seems particularly dicey, because 8.3m square feet (770,000 square metres) of new office space will be coming into the market by 2013. According to CLSA, a broking firm, oversupply will also weigh heavily on office property in China. Vacancy rates in Shanghai and Beijing could rise to 35% in 2010 from around 17% and 22% respectively today.

有迹象表明，房价下跌速度正在放缓。第一季度香港中心城区办公租金下降20.1%。第二季度虽下跌10.4%，但已温和得多。而向前看，新加坡显得尤为冒 险，到2013年，其有近830万平方英尺（约77万平方米）的新办公空间将投入市场。据里昂证券经纪公司表示，供过于求的现象也将加重中国办公物业的压 力。到2010年，上海和北京的办公物业空置率将分别从现在的17%和22%上扬至35%。

A year ago everyone was worried about losses on residential-property loans. If the latest data are any guide, both American and British house prices may be finding a bottom. Concerns are now switching to the commercial sector. History suggests downturns in that market last for years, rather than months. Almost 20 years have passed since the Japanese property market peaked. Prices still fell by 4.7% last year.

一年以前，每个人都担心在住宅物业贷款上的损失。如果近期数据具有指向作用，那么美国和英国的房产价格正在触底。焦虑现在被转移到了商业部门上。历史提醒 我们，商业房产市场的低迷时期将通常持续几年，而非几月了事。日本物业市场顶峰期已过去将近20年了，但去年价格仍然下降了4.7%。