【双语阅读】全球经济复苏未成定局

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WORLD RECOVERY IS NOT YET IN THE BAG


Editorial 2009-08-25


Some good news: Germany, France and Japan recorded output growth in the second quarter of 2009. These rises in output are cheering: they represent work created and profits made. Equity markets have also started to rediscover a little of their swagger: the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 now sit at levels not seen since October of last year.

But as a posse of central bankers – corralled this weekend at the Federal Reserve's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming – were keen to point out, it is not safe to blithely assume that a recovery is now well underway: monetary policy must remain stimulative for the foreseeable future.

The second-quarter gross domestic product results were good, but their significance should not be overstated. Falls in output during and after the autumn financial panic were bound to overshoot. These recent rises, therefore, may not indicate recovering demand, so much as output rising to find its real floor.

This GDP rebound was also supported by a strong global cocktail of stimulus. Such policies take time to kick in, but some of the measures will have had an effect on second-quarter results. And as the effect of these doses peaks over the coming quarters, they will probably power further growth.

So even if there is a consistent rise in output in the next few quarters, it will not necessarily mean that the recession is over, or that support for the economy should be withdrawn. Indeed, it seems much more likely that stimulus measures will need to be extended than that they will need reining in ahead of schedule.

First, there are problems weighing on demand everywhere. Unemployment will continue to climb for some time globally. And, at the same time, the world banking system remains undercapitalised: credit will remain tight, restricting finance to consumers and businesses.

Second, little progress has been made in rebalancing the world economy. The nations whose consumption powered the boom, notably the US and the UK, are suffering balance-sheet recessions. Overindebted, their consumers are likely to want to spend some time saving.

So, if it is to be sustainable, the recovery will need to rely on demand from countries that have not recently been big spenders: notably frugal Germany and Japan. But there is still little sign of that kind of shift. All is uncertain, and one must hope that the recovery is rapid. But it would be foolish to assume it.


全球经济复苏未成定局


英国《金融时报》社评(Editorial) 2009-08-25


最近传来一些好消息：德国、法国和日本在2009年第二季度均实现产出增长。这些产出的增长令人鼓舞：它们代表着就业岗位和盈利。全球股市也已恢复一些元气：英国富时100指数和美国标普500指数目前均处于去年10月份以来的高位。

但是，正如多名央行官员——上周末他们应美联储(Federal Reserve)之邀，在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔聚会——所急于指出的那样，现在还不能轻率地假定：复苏已经站稳脚跟，在可预见的将来，货币政策必须仍向刺激经济倾斜。

第二季度的国内生产总值(GDP)数据确实不错，但我们不应夸大它们的重要性。去年秋天金融恐慌期间发生的产出下滑，其幅度势必过大。因此，近期的这些增长也许并不说明需求逐渐复苏，而只说明产出有所回升，找到其真正的底部。

此轮GDP反弹，也得到了强劲的全球混合刺激举措的支持。这些政策需要一定时间才能发挥作用，但其中一些政策会对第二季度的经济数据产生效果。随着这些刺激措施的效果在未来几个季度逐渐达到顶峰，它们可能还将推动经济进一步增长。

因此，即便接下来几个季度产出持续增长，也未必意味着经济衰退已经结束，或者对经济的支持应当撤销。的确，刺激措施看来更有可能需要延长，而不是需要提前收敛。

首先，全球各地都存在对需求构成抑制的问题。全球失业人数在一段时期内将继续上升。与此同时，全球银行业体系仍将处于资本金不足状态：信贷仍将较为紧张，限制着消费者和企业能够获得的融资。

其次，在重新调整全球经济的平衡方面几乎没有任何进展。曾经依靠消费推动繁荣的国家，特别是美国和英国，正承受资产负债表衰退的问题。这些国家的消费者债务负担过重，在一段时期内可能将倾向于储蓄。

因此，要想实现可持续的复苏，就需要依靠近年消费不高的国家的需求，特别是节俭的德国和日本。但我们几乎看不到出现这种转变的迹象。一切都不确定，人们肯定希望复苏是迅速的。但假定复苏是迅速的，则非明智之举。


译者/和风