【双语阅读】各国央行无意加息

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BANKERS CONTENT TO KEEP RATES LOW


By Krishna Guha in Jackson Hole 2009-08-24


The world's central bankers seemed in no hurry to start raising interest rates as they headed home yesterday from the US Federal Reserve's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

In private and in public, most officials indicated they believed that rates could be maintained at ultra-low levels for a considerable time without generating excess inflation, in spite of better economic data and a return of “animal spirits” in financial markets.

Some used the platform of the conference to push back against calls for early implementation of “exit strategies” that would reverse the current extraordinary degree of monetary stimulus.

“There is no reason to re-assess our monetary policy stance,” Erkki Liikanen, Finland's central bank governor, told Bloomberg news agency. Ewald Nowotny, Austria's central bank chief, said he did not favour adding a surcharge to the European Central Bank's next offer of one-year loans to banks – a view shared by some other European officials in Jackson Hole.

If the ECB simply offers the money at its current policy rate, the market is likely to interpret this as a signal that it does not expect to raise interest rates for 12 months.

Federal Reserve officials have edged up their assessment of economic conditions but have not significantly revised 2010 forecasts. They are encouraged by the shares rally, and see scope for this to support economic activity by restoring lost wealth and improving confidence, but are not betting too much on this.


各国央行无意加息


英国《金融时报》克里什纳•古哈(Krishna Guha)杰克逊霍尔报道 2009-08-24


各国央行行长似乎并不急于加息。昨日，他们在美联储(Fed)怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)年会闭幕后回国。

无论在私下还是在公开场合，大多数官员暗示，尽管经济数据有所好转以及“动物精神”重返金融市场，但他们认为，利率可能会在相当长时期内保持在超低水平，不会产生过度通胀。

一些人利用本次会议的平台，反对过早执行“退出战略”，即逆转当前超常的货币刺激。

芬兰央行行长厄基•利卡宁(Erkki Liikanen)向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示：“没有理由重新评估我们的货币政策立场。”奥地利央行行长爱华德•诺沃特尼(Ewald Nowotny)则表示，他不赞成欧洲央行(ECB)下次向银行提供一年期贷款时收取附加费——一些其他欧洲官员在杰克逊霍尔对这一观点表示赞同。

如果欧洲央行只以当前政策利率提供这些资金，市场可能将此解读为其未来12个月不会加息的信号。

美联储官员小幅调高了经济形势的评估，但没有明显修改2010年的预期。股市上涨令他们感到鼓舞，认为这有助于恢复失去的财富和提振信心，从而为经济活动提供支持，但没有过多地押注于此。


译者/君悦

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