【双语阅读】日本7月出口降幅扩大

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DECLINE IN JAPANESE EXPORTS ACCELERATES

By Justine Lau in Hong Kong 2009-08-26


Japan's July exports fell more sharply on a year-on-year basis than in June, highlighting concerns that the world's second-largest economy faces a slow recovery.

Provisional data released on Wednesday showed that shipments in July fell 36.5 per cent by value year-on-year, outpacing the 35.7 per cent decline in June.

Exports to China and the US, the two biggest buyers of Japanese goods, fell 26.5 per cent and 39.5 per cent respectively. Fragile global demand was exacerbated by a strong yen, which rose as much as 4.4 per cent against the dollar in July.

The drop in exports came after Japan last week reported that quarterly gross domestic product rose for the first time since the first quarter of 2008, largely as a result of the government's stimulus programme, which amounts to about 4 per cent of GDP.

Economists have warned that Japan's recovery — amid rising unemployment and growing deflationary pressures — remained vulnerable to any uncertainty in export demand or tightening of the fiscal stimulus policies.

“The trade figures confirm that growth momentum for exports is falling down. The Japanese economy depends a lot on the US. We don't expect the US to recover drastically so Japan's exports are likely to remain weak for the short term,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS in Tokyo.

“The worst of the economy is over. But we can't rely on a drastic recovery because external demand is still quite weak.”

The weak exports figures came as The Nikkei newspaper reported that Toyota was planning to cut its global capacity by 10 per cent to match slower sales.


日本7月出口降幅扩大

《金融时报》刘励和(Justine Lau)香港报道 2009-08-26

日本7月份出口额的同比降幅较6月份更为严重，加剧了人们对全球第二大经济体将面临缓慢复苏的担忧。

周三公布的临时数据显示，7月份出口总额同比下降36.5%，超过6月份35.7%的降幅。

对中国和美国——日本商品的两个最大买家——的出口分别下降26.5%和39.5%。强劲的日元使本已脆弱的国际需求雪上加霜。7月份，日元兑美元汇率上涨4.4%。

日本上周宣布，季度国内生产总值(GDP)自2008年第一季度以来首次实现增长，主要原因是政府推出的规模相当于GDP4%的经济刺激计划。

经济学家警告称，在失业率上升、通缩压力加大的情况下，日本的复苏仍然脆弱，任何出口需求的不确定性或财政刺激政策的收紧都会对其造成影响。

苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)首席经济学家顺子西冈(Junko Nishioka)表示：“贸易数据证实，出口增长的动能正在减弱。日本经济在很大程度上取决于美国。我们不认为美国经济将急剧好转，因此日本的出口在短期内可能会继续疲弱。”

“经济状况最糟糕的阶段已经结束。但我们不能寄望于强势复苏，因为外部需求仍然非常疲弱。”

出口数据发布之际，《日本经济新闻》(The Nikkei)报称，为适应销售放缓，丰田(Toyota)计划将全球产能削减10%。


译者/章晴

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