【2009经济学人杂志双语阅读】Pigheaded policies 针对猪的政策

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经济学人杂志双语阅读：Pigheaded policies 针对猪的政策

Swine flu in Argentina
阿根廷猪流感

Pigheaded policies
针对猪的政策

Jul 9th 2009 | BUENOS AIRES
From The Economist print edition

The dangers of a reputation for dodgy statistics
躲闪统计头衔之危险



IT IS winter in South America’s southern cone, so it is no surprise that swine flu is rampant. But its impact is not uniform. It came first to Chile before it turned up across the Andes in Argentina. But in Argentina 2.4% of reported cases have resulted in the death of the patient while in Chile the corresponding figure is just 0.2%. Why?

时值南美洲南锥体的冬季，所以猪流感肆虐也便不足为奇，但其造成的影响却不尽相同。猪流感首先到达智利，随后，跨越安第斯山脉出现在阿根廷境内。然而，在阿根廷境内，2.4%的报告病例以死亡告终，而在智利，数字仅为0.2%，原因何在？

Part of the answer seems to lie with the way that health services are organised. In Argentina health policies as well as health budgets are in the hands of provincial governments. That is a contrast not just with Chile’s centralised system but also with Brazil, which like Argentina is a federal country, but where the health ministry in Brasília sets overall national goals.

原因之一就是卫生服务的组织方式不同。在阿根廷，卫生保健政策及健康预算由地方政府管制。这不仅与智利的中央管制系统形成对比，也不同于同阿根廷同属联邦国家的巴西，巴西利亚的卫生部设立了全国性目标。

This means that when a bug strikes Argentina it is met by a health system whose officials talk to each other infrequently, have different objectives, and dip into pots of cash of widely varying size. For example, Santa Cruz, an oil-rich province in Patagonia, spends eight times more per head on health care than Corrientes, in the poor north-east, according to Daniel Maceira, a health economist. On July 6th several of the needier provincial health ministers were promised a bit more federal help to fight the flu.

这就意味着如果一只小虫袭击了阿根廷，它将遇到这样一个医疗系统：相关人员很少互相沟通，目标不一致，并对大范围的疫情只投入少量资金。举个例子，据卫生 经济学家Daniel Maceira的数据，巴塔哥尼亚盛产石油的一个省份圣克鲁斯，投在医疗上的人均费用是位于贫穷的东北部科达特斯的9倍。7月6日，更需要援助的省级卫生 部长得到承诺，将会得到稍多的联邦支持以对抗流感。

A second factor that may have made things worse in Argentina is that the government may have been slow to respond. Some doctors accuse it of deliberately downplaying the outbreak until after a mid-term election on June 28th. The health minister resigned because her request to delay the election was denied (though she waited until after the vote to go). An advisory committee of medical experts assembled by the government has called for a national health emergency to be declared, but that has not yet happened.

第二个使问题恶化的可能因素就是政府采取行动过于缓慢。一些医生指责政府一直有意淡化疫情，直到6月28日中期选举结束。卫生部长因其推迟选举的请求遭到 拒绝已经辞职（尽管选择直到选举结束后她才离开）。政府组织的由医疗专家组成的咨询委员会提倡申报国家应急计划，但号召至今仍未实现。

The accusation of time-wasting may in fact be unfair. But Argentines have come to mistrust the authorities. Under Cristina Fernández, the president, and her predecessor and husband, Néstor Kirchner, they have become accustomed to the government fiddling economic statistics, such as inflation and growth rates.

浪费时间的指控或许并不公平。但是阿根廷人民已经不再相信政府了。在总统Néstor Kirchner及其接班人兼丈夫Cristina Fernández的政权下，阿根廷人民已经习惯了政府玩弄诸如通货膨胀及增长率等经济数据。

Rightly or wrongly, many seem to believe that officials have understated the number of people who have gone down with flu (which might be an alternative explanation for the seemingly high death rate). This week panicked Argentines travelled to Chile and Uruguay in droves to buy drugs such as Tamiflu, despite the government’s insistence that it would ensure there are sufficient stocks.

无论是对是错，看起来许多人都认为政府官员低报了因患流感而倒下的人民数量（也就是看来较高的死亡率的另一种说法）。本周，尽管政府坚称将确保足够的药品储备，惊恐万分的阿根廷人还是成群结队来到智利及乌拉圭购买Tamiflu这样的药品。

Chile’s response seems to have been swifter, better co-ordinated and more decisive. On the same day that the World Health Organisation raised the alert about swine flu back in April, Michelle Bachelet, Chile’s president, gathered a committee of experts to discuss the threat. It may have helped that Ms Bachelet is a medical doctor by profession.

智利一方看起来行动要迅速许多，配合更加协调，决策也更果断。早在四月份，国际卫生组织提高对猪流感警惕性的当天，智利总统Michelle Bachelet就召集了一个专家委员会讨论如何应对危胁。Bachelet本身是一名专业医生或许在这方面给予了有利条件。

Argentina’s halting reaction could affect the economy. Miguel Kiguel, a consultant, reckons that swine flu could shave 0.5% off GDP between July and the start of spring, in September. Theatres have closed down for ten days, the first time they have all gone dark since 1918 when Spanish flu swept the world. Brazil’s government has urged its citizens not to visit Argentina. Flights from Brazil to Bariloche, a Patagonian ski resort, have been cancelled. Unluckily for the town’s winter sports, swine flu is expected to die down only when the snow melts.

阿根廷迟缓的反应将会对经济造成影响。Miguel Kiguel顾问估计，从7月到9月春季到来之时，猪流感将耗去0.5%的国内生产总值（GDP）。剧院已关停10天，这是自1918年西班牙流感以来第 一次全部关停。巴西政府已敦促国民不要到阿根廷去。由巴西飞往巴塞罗那—一个巴塔哥尼亚滑雪胜地--的航班已被取消。对该城冬季运动来说，极为不幸的是猪 流感预计将在冰雪融化之时才会销声匿迹。