【2009经济学人杂志双语阅读】Mervyn's reality check 马尔文审视现状

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Prospects for recovery
复苏前景

Mervyn's reality check
马尔文审视现状

Aug 13th 2009
From The Economist print edition

The Bank of England foresees better times but remains wary
英国银行对未来预期变好，但仍存谨慎。



FOR much of this summer, a recovery has shimmered on the horizon only to turn out to be a mirage. Now a genuine revival in Britain’s swooning economy does look in sight. But it will bring scant comfort to anyone hoping for a swift return to business as usual.

这个夏天的大部分时候，经济复苏的希望如同在天边闪烁般迷茫，最终不过是一场空。而暑假将要结束的现在，英国经济昏沉之后的一场真正复苏看起来不远了。但对于那些希望经济迅速回复常态的人来说，这还远远不足以缓解他们的忧虑。

That, in effect, was the unpalatable message delivered by the Bank of England on August 12th in its quarterly review of the economy. Presenting the findings of the Inflation Report, Mervyn King, the bank’s governor, said it was likely that output had stabilised in the middle of this year. The bank was now more confident that the economy would pick up in the near future. But he gave warning that “recovery could be slow and protracted.”

事实上，这个信息的来源是英国银行于八月12日发布的季度经济情况报告，尽管该报告并不是令人满意的。行长马尔文金在其展示的《通胀报告》中提出，英国出 口状况在年中可能已经稳定下来。英国银行对经济在短期内回升有更加充足的信心。然而，他也警告说“经济回复的进程会是长期而缓慢的。”

That recovery should be supported in the initial stages by a turnaround in the stock cycle, as producers start to meet demand by raising output rather than running down inventories. The fall in the pound will also help. Although sterling has bounced back quite a bit since its nadir at the end of last year, the trade-weighted index is still 20% lower than in the first half of 2007, before the financial crisis began. That should give British producers of tradable goods and services a competitive edge both at home and in foreign markets. More generally, the economy is being boosted by the extraordinary stimulus it is getting from monetary and fiscal policy.

在开始阶段，支持经济的回升的会是产品流通状况上面的扭转。现阶段为应对需求，制造商不再减少库存积压，而是正开始增加产量。英镑贬值也会起到支持效果。 英镑自去年年底的最低点后已经有一定的回升，但经过贸易加权后的英镑水平和危机前的07年上半年相比仍然低了20％。由此，英国制造商的货物和服务项目在 国内和国际市场上都还拥有一定竞争优势。从更广的意义上来讲，经济所收到的支撑来自于货币和金融政策方面强有力的刺激。

But the recovery will be from a lower starting-point than the Bank of England envisaged in May, reflecting the dismal performance of the economy in the first half of the year (see chart 1). On the other hand, it will be somewhat stronger thanks to the bank’s decision on August 6th to extend yet further its unorthodox policy of quantitative easing. It will purchase a further £50 billion ($83 billion) of assets with newly created money over the next three months, taking the total to £175 billion.

然而，经济恢复的起点将会比英国银行在五月份预测中的预想要低，这也反映了英国经济在整个上半年的疲软表现。但另外好的方面是，由于英国银行在八月六日决定延长并扩大执行它非传统的大批量经济纾缓措施，复苏或多或少会更加强劲。根据这个决定，英国银行将在接下来的三个月以新印钞票的形式增加购买价值500亿英镑（830美元）的资产，将购买总值增加到一千一百七十五亿英镑。

Moreover, the bank used the occasion to send a signal that it would be in no hurry to raise the base rate, which it brought down to an all-time low of 0.5% in March. The report presents projections for inflation on two different assumptions, the interest rates expected by the markets and the base rate being left unchanged. By comparing the two forecasts it is possible to infer how realistic the bank judges market expectations to be.

除此之外，英国银行将以此报告为机会传递信息，银行将不会迅速提高基准利率。基准利率在三月份被下调到有史以来最低的百分之零点五。报告中对于基于两种假 设的通货膨胀率做出了预测。一种预测假设基准利率以市场期望为准，另一种假设以其维持不变为准。通过比较两种情况我们可以看出，央行对于市场所持有的预期 的判断还是十分现实的。

The City had been expecting the base rate to rise next year, to reach just over 2% by the end of 2010 and to carry on rising in 2011. On this basis, consumer-price inflation would be below the 2% target in two years’ time—the period it normally takes for monetary policy to have its full effect on prices (see chart 2). If instead the base rate were held at 0.5%, inflation would be hitting the target in mid-2011. In practice the bank is highly unlikely to keep interest rates on hold in this way, but it does not have to raise them as quickly as the markets had been expecting.

银行业界的预期是明年基准利率会上升，到2010年上升到百分之二，在2011年继续上涨。基于这种假设，消费品价格通胀将在两年内低于百分之二――而两 年时间一般是货币政策在影响价格上发挥其完全作用的时间。（见图2）如果基准利率维持在百分之零点五，那么通胀率在2011年中期就会达到百分之二的数 字。在实际操作中央行很不可能采取这样保持利率不变的做法，但是央行不会令利率的升值如市场预期那样的快。

One worry about the programme of quantitative easing is that it will stoke inflation. The bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that such a concern is unwarranted. The recession has been so severe that a big gap has opened up between the productive capacity of the economy and actual output. While this persists it will constrain inflationary pressures—and given the gap’s size, it is likely to last a long time, even with a healthy recovery.

有一项担忧是关于大规模纾困项目的，即这项计划会诱发通货膨胀。央行的通胀预测提出这种担忧是没有理由的。严重的经济衰退已经导致了产能和产量之间的巨大 落差。这种差距的持续存在将制约通货膨胀的压力，而这种差距的规模导致其有可能在经济健康回升的情况下也持续相当长时间。

As if to underline the point, official figures on the labour market published on the same day as the bank’s report showed earnings (excluding bonuses) rising by only 2.5% in the year to the second quarter, compared with 3.8% a year earlier. That is unsurprising given the damage wreaked by the recession. There was a record fall in employment of 271,000 between the first and second quarters of 2009. And unemployment rose to 7.8% of the labour force in the second quarter, up from 5.4% a year earlier. That brought the total number of jobless up to 2.4m, the highest since 1995. John Hawksworth, an economist at PWC, an accountancy firm, says unemployment is on course to reach 3m next spring.

劳动力市场上的数据恰恰说明了这一切。根据与央行报告同日发布的官方数字，劳动力市场中收入一项（ 除去奖金）在第二季度较上年只增长了百分之2.5％，而去年的这个数字是百分之3.8％。由于衰退的严重影响，这个数字并不让人吃惊。毕竟在2009年第 一和第二季度间，就业岗位减少了27万1千个，失业率在第二季度上涨到了百分之7.8，去年的数字是5.4％，总共失业人数则上涨到了两百四十万，为 1995年以来最高。普华永道经济学家约翰霍克渥斯指出，明年春季失业人数将达到三百万。

Mr King may be rather more confident about an upswing in the near term, but he continues to worry about whether it will prove sustainable further ahead. Banks still have much work to do to repair their ravaged balance-sheets, which will limit their ability to lend. Meanwhile, a fragile banking system remains vulnerable to further shocks. The Bank of England’s report identifies “persistent weakness in bank lending” as a downside risk to spending over the next three years.

央行金行长也许对经济短期内的上升更有信心，但是他仍旧担心的是这种上升是否能够持久。各个银行的收支平衡惨不忍睹，恢复仍然需要大量工作，这样又会限制 它们贷款的能力。与此同时，银行系统十分脆弱，无法承受更多的冲击。英国银行的报告中指出“银行贷款的持续疲软”将对未来三年内消费活动形成威胁。

So much still to worry about
忧虑之处仍然不少

Households must also sort out their finances after a decade of overborrowing. They will need to save more both to make up for falls in wealth and to keep more aside in case they become unemployed. Higher saving together with subdued earnings “is likely to result in relatively weak household spending growth”, says the bank.

普通家庭进行了为期十年的过度借贷消费，现在是理清家庭财政的时候了。家庭储蓄必须增加，以便在家庭财富流失时有所补助，并且防止失业时的窘境。央行指出，“更高的家庭储蓄以及收入的减少可能会导致家庭消费的增长相对减弱。”

There are other risks. The bank is expecting net trade to bolster the recovery, as exporters press home their gains in competitiveness once foreign markets recover. But, as the report points out, “the outlook for global demand is highly uncertain,” not least since other countries are facing the same difficulties. A world recovery may also prove fragile if it prompts big commodity price rises.

其它风险仍然存在。央行的希望是一旦国外市场复苏，那么出口商即可在竞争中尽力追求利润，贸易顺差可以支撑经济的恢复。然而正如这份报告所说，“世界经济 需求的前景将十分难以预料”，而与此同时其它国家也面临英国同样的问题。如果商品价格迅速上涨的话，又必然会伤害到经济脆弱的恢复。

The Bank of England’s overall prognosis may appear gloomy; but it is realistic. The recession has taken a terrible toll on output, which has fallen by 5.7% since the start of 2008. The genesis of the downturn—a financial crisis that came close to toppling Britain’s banking system—is one that augurs ill for a robust recovery. Moreover, the emergency monetary and fiscal treatment must eventually be withdrawn, which will create moments of peril ahead. With an election due by the middle of next year, Labour and the Conservatives will be fighting over a miserable inheritance.

从整体上看，英国银行的分析也许暗淡；但是这个分析是着眼实际的。衰退对生产产生了非常坏的影响，自08年以来就下降了百分之5.7。而这次经济下滑的根 源――一场几乎摧毁英国银行系统的金融危机――则预示着经济复苏不会拥有一个强劲势头。另外，紧急实施的货币和财政方案必须最终撤销，这又会导致在未来的 不稳定。明年中期英国即将举办大选，工党和保守党即使争破头，得到的也会是一个烂摊子。