【2009经济学人杂志双语阅读】Iceland and the European Union冰岛与欧盟

chijiaoshunv

All things to Althing
阿耳庭的一切


Jul 23rd 2009 | REYKJAVIK
From The Economist print edition

Three big obstacles stand in the way of Iceland’s EU membership冰岛加入欧盟的三大阻碍

The fish may not enjoy the European Union鱼儿们大概不喜欢欧盟

ON JULY 16th Iceland’s Althingi, or parliament, voted by 33 to 28 to apply to join the European Union. This is the biggest step taken by the Social Democrat/Left Green coalition led by Johanna Sigurdardottir since it was formed in May. But in truth the path to both EU membership and the euro will be rocky and uncertain.

7月16日，冰岛在阿耳庭，即议会以33比28投票决定申请加入欧盟。这是Johanna领导的社会民主党，即左绿联盟自五月成立以来最重大的举动。然而，加入欧盟之路实为荆棘之旅，前途未卜。

There is heady talk of Iceland’s application being “fast-tracked”. The country has been an associate member of the European Economic Area (EEA) since 1994, so it already meets most EU membership requirements. If all goes well, say optimists, Iceland’s application could catch up with Croatia’s, leading to membership in late 2012 or early 2013.

性急者扬言冰岛申请入欧将很快成功。冰岛早在1994年就已是欧洲经济区成员，因而其符合欧盟对其成员国的绝大部分要求。乐观者认为，顺利的话，冰岛可能会领先克罗地亚于2012年末或2013年初入欧。

Yet three obstacles loom ahead. First is the EU’s notorious common fisheries policy, which would give other EU members access to Iceland’s fish. There are get-outs for traditional fishing grounds, but they may be hard to invoke. Students of past “cod wars” with Britain will be aware of Icelanders’ determination to protect national assets, but given that it is the Icelanders who are demandeurs they may have to compromise.

然而，三大阻碍也迎面而来。阻碍一：欧盟臭名昭著的共同捕渔政策，其代表欧盟成员国将可以到冰岛捕鱼。有呼声要求开放传统渔场，但难以奏效。经历过英、冰鳕鱼之战的人均知道冰岛人捍卫国家财产的决心。但既然冰岛人是需求方，也许他们不得不做出妥协。

The second problem is the economy, the shocking state of which has forced the decision to apply to the EU. The budget deficit is running at 13% of GDP; public debt is well over 100%. The Icelandic krona has lost half its value against the euro since January 2008. Iceland’s credit rating is close to junk. All this will make it hard to meet the Maastricht criteria for joining the euro. This week some German politicians muttered that Iceland should not get in until it sorted out its economy. Dutch ministers also linked Iceland’s bid to the Althingi’s approval of a bank-rescue plan (see article).

阻碍二：经济。冰岛可怕的经济情况迫使其申请入欧。财政赤字达国民生产总值的13%；公共债务超过100%；自2008年1月冰岛克朗较欧元贬值了一半。 冰岛信用评级接近垃圾。上述情况使得冰岛的很难达到马斯特里赫特标准，从而加入欧盟。本周，有些德国政治家抱怨要求冰岛不得在实现经济复苏前加入欧盟。荷 兰部长也将冰岛此举与阿耳庭银行援救计划联系在一起。

Third and most awkward, a referendum will have to approve Iceland’s EU membership. Yet a recent poll shows popular support dropping from 58% last October to only 38% today. Many Icelanders see the EU rules they had to adopt in the EEA as one cause of the economic collapse; most dislike the fisheries policy. Critics of EU membership, led by the Independence Party, will find it easy to stir opposition. Iceland’s cousins in Norway have twice negotiated to join, only for the voters to say no. There is every risk that Iceland may follow suit.

阻碍三，也是最大的阻碍，冰岛申请入欧需要公众投票表决。然而，最近的一次投票显示，民众支持率去年8月为58%，如今下降到只有38%。不少冰岛人认为 欧洲经济区采取的欧盟规定是造成其经济崩溃的一个原因；绝大部分人则厌恶捕鱼政策。独立党领导的对欧盟成员国的批判会轻易激起反面意见。冰岛的近邻--- 挪威已经两度与试图加入（欧盟），但都以选民反对告终。而冰岛政府极有危险陷入诉讼。