【2009经济学人杂志双语阅读】The decline of the English divorce 英国离婚衰退曲

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Social trends

社会潮流


The decline of the English divorce
英国离婚衰退曲

Jul 16th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Fewer marriages means stronger ones
更少的婚姻数意味着更稳固的结合



BEFORE the economy fell apart, it was Britain’s society that wassupposed to be in terminal decline, especially in the eyes of theTories. David Cameron, the Conservative Party leader, was wont tobemoan “broken Britain”, mired in moral degeneracy, with high rates ofteenage pregnancy, low rates of marriage and other less quantifiablebreakdowns in the civilised scheme of things.

在经济崩塌之前，英国社会，尤其是在保守派人士看来，正走向末路。“破碎的英国”，保守党领袖David Cameron每每用此语来哀叹英国道德失落的困境，居高不下的青少年怀孕事件，低迷不振的结婚率和其他不是那么容易用数据可以衡量的文明的衰败景象。

Such antediluvian worries were raked over again on July 13th when IainDuncan Smith, a former Tory leader, called for an official endorsementof marriage. Mr Duncan Smith cites several reasons to encouragewedlock, including family stability (married couples are much lesslikely to split than cohabiting ones) and healthier children who dobetter in later life. There was talk of state-run counselling,pro-marriage propaganda in schools and mandatory “cooling-off” periodsbefore divorces. Mr Duncan Smith favours tax breaks for marriedcouples, something that Labour has long refused to endorse.

如 此先古圣人般的忧虑于本月13日再次从历史的旧账中被抖落出来。托利党前领袖Iain Duncan Smith呼吁将婚姻制度写入官方认可。他提到鼓励人们结婚的种种理由，包括有利于家庭稳定（相比同居，结婚的恋人分开的可能性要小很多），有利于培养更 健康的孩子和他们今后的发展。先前人们曾讨论由国家举办婚姻咨询，校内婚前宣传和离婚前的强制“冷静”期等举措。Duncan Smith先生则更推崇对结婚夫妇实施赋税减免。只是工党长期来一直拒绝批准该政策。

It is true that marriage is a declining institution. Marriage rates areat their lowest since 1895. But, curiously, those who do marry now staytogether for longer. Divorce rates are falling, not rising, and havebeen for several years. In 2007 11.9 married couples per thousanduntied the knot, down from 12.2 the year before and the lowest since1981. The time that divorcing couples endure each other before flingingback the rings has lengthened too, from 10.1 years in 1981 to 11.7 in2007. Indifference towards the sacrament of marriage appears strongestamong the elderly, not the feckless young. Since 2004, when the overalldivorce rate peaked at 14.1 per thousand, over-60s have been the onlypart of the population whose rates have continued to rise.

婚姻制度正走向没落，这是事实。如今的结婚率正处于1895年以来的最低点。然而奇怪的是，如今结婚的夫妇比那时相处得更加长久。离婚率正在下降，而非上升，并且在过去几年中一直如此。2007年每千对夫妻中有11.9对解散他们的结合，较06年的12.2有所下降，是1981年以来的最低的。同时离婚的夫妇在相互扔还戒指前忍受对方的时间也有所增加，从1981年的10.1年上升到2007年的11.7年。另外，对婚姻誓言的漠视表现得最明显的是老年人，而非扶不起的年轻一代。自离婚率在2004年达到历史最高点每千对14.1以来，60岁以上的人群是所有年龄段中唯一一个离婚率继续保持上升的。

There are plenty of competing explanations for the diminishing appealof divorce, and no easy way to discover which are true. Immigration mayhave helped, since immigrant families often have more conservativeattitudes than the degenerate natives. Accountants and divorce lawyersreckon a string of recent big settlements may have acted as a deterrent(although it could equally have encouraged the poorer partners infinancially unequal marriages).

有 许许多多对离婚的魅惑力日益下降的解释，它们各执一词，难辨真假。移民潮可能是原因之一，因为移民家庭对婚姻的态度往往比败坏了的英国本土公民更为保守。 会计师和离婚律师则估摸着最近一系列大规模的债务清算起到了震慑作用（尽管它也可能同时鼓励在经济地位不平等的婚姻中较弱势的一方借机挣脱盟约）

Falling marriage rates and falling divorce rates could be two sides ofthe same coin, says Kathleen Kiernan, a professor of social policy atYork University. The unpopularity of marriage and the relative ease ofdivorce has left only a hard core of stable couples bound in wedlock.And the rise in the average age at which people get married (now 36 formen and 33 for women) is helping too, since older brides and groomstend to stay together longer in any case. If so, politicians should becautious about handing out tax breaks. Even if they work (and MsKiernan thinks they would have to be enormous to have much effect),chivvying unmarried couples into wedlock is likely to mean moredivorces in the future.

而 约克角大学的社会政策教授KathleenKiernan则表示，结婚率下降和离婚率下降可看作是同一枚硬币的两面。婚姻的不受欢迎和离婚的相对轻松仅仅 筛选、沉淀下了那些因婚姻而牢牢联系在一起的夫妇成为婚姻队伍里坚不可摧的核心。而人们平均结婚年龄的上升（男的36岁，女的33岁）也起了一定作用，因 为年龄大些的新郎新娘不管怎样都会相处得更长久些。如果情况真是如此，那政治家们在提供赋税减免政策时就要小心了。因为即使政策凑效，将未结婚的恋人们匆 匆赶进婚姻的殿堂很可能意味着未来会有更多的离婚事件。

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